A: there is a serious decline in production

A: Fieldwork question and geographical context u1 

Fieldwork question:  What are the trends of migration in Dren and the causes for them?

Geographical context:

Reason for choosing my topic: My family has a country house in Dren and when I was little, I remember that the village was a lively place. However, in the recent years, Dren has become a desolate village. After noticing this change, I wondered whether my observation is true.

Location: Dren is a small village in western Bulgaria (see Figure 1) located at one of the oldest trade roads on the Balkan Peninsula. It is situated near the foothills of Verila Mountain and in the Radomirska Valley. The village is about 46 km from the capital city, Sofia and 20 km from Pernik (major manufacturing center, one of the largest in the country.) Dren is a part of Radomir municipality and Pernik district.

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Dren

Scale: 1:1000
 

.

  Figure 1. A map of Pernik district, which is located in western Bulgaria, and the location of Dren.

 

Context: According to the Regional Business Center for Small and Medium Enterprises Support Pernik (the district) improves the urban-industrial sector and neglects the rural economy. Also, throughout the past years, the sowing area of the main agricultural crops in the district has been significantly reduced. In addition, there is a serious decline in production of wheat, barley, and oats. According to the core and periphery concept, the economic factors highly determine the emigration from the countryside to the town.

On the other hand, based on National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria’s data, urban-to-rural migration in Bulgaria from 2013 to 2015 is more frequent trend then rural-to urban-migration (see figure 2)

 

 

Figure 2 – Internal migration in Bulgaria

Description of the graph:

From 2012 to 2016, the number of rural-to-urban migrants remained fairly static at approximately 1917 people. However, the number of urban-to-rural migrants went up and down widely through these years. The period between 2012 and 2014 saw a dramatic growth and the greatest rise was in 2015 when it rose by 44864 people. In 2015, there was a considerable fall in the number of urban-to-rural migrants.

Definitions:

Migration- “The movement of people across a specified boundary, national or international, to establish a new permanent place of residence. The UN defines “permanent” as a change of residence lasting more than a one year.”

Emigration- “The act of leaving one’s own country to settle permanently in another; moving abroad.”

Immigration- “The action of coming to live permanently in a foreign country”

1. Hypothesis: If we consider the core and periphery concept, the emigrants might be more than the immigrants

 2. Hypothesis: If we consider that there is an increasing urban-to-rural migration trend, the immigrants might be more than the emigrants.

Syllabus: In my opinion, the area of the syllabus, which is most appropriate and reasonable for my investigation, is “Movement responses – migration.”

 

B: Methods u2 of investigation

Source 1: In order to effectively find out what is the trend of migration, as a secondary data, I created a graph (see Figure 4) of the migration process (from 2010 to 2016) in Radomir municipality. The data is taken from the National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria.

Aim: I made a graph of the whole municipality because I wanted to show a global view of the process in order to relate it to some socio-economic trend.

Source 2: Another method of investigation that I use was an interview. I interviewed two females and three males at different ages. Three out of five were emigrants. I recorded them on my phone. I asked them two questions and there are the following: “What is the cause of your migration?” and “What are the advantages and the disadvantages of village life?”

Aim: To receive more personal and detailed information which I cannot get from the survey and the statistics

Source 3: As a primary data, I compiled a series of questions in the form of a survey. After that, I gave the survey to 80 people in the village. I chose to do this investigation during Easter because on the holidays people celebrate with their relatives in their birthplace. For that reason, there was a high percentage of migrants. I made the survey on the square because there were many people.

The Content of the survey: The first questions are general such as “What is your gender?” and “What is your age?” and the other questions are more specific. For example, “What are the causes of your migration?” The general questions will structure my analysis. The specific questions will enrich my investigation. The whole survey is shown in the appendix.

Aim: To extract the main causes and the trend of migration

 

 

C/D: Quality and treatment of information collected and written analysis u3 

In this section, I am going to analyze the three sources.

Source 1:  

  Figure 3: Emigrants and Immigrants of Radomir municipality in the recent years

In order to relate the graph to the socio-economic concept, I will equal Radomir to Pernik because the whole territory of the municipality is located in the district. According to the urban-to-rural migration trend, this region of the country is an exception. There is a rural-to-urban trend because the emigrants through the years are more.  The reason is the socio-economic development of Pernik (see figure 4). Although, that Pernik is between the critical value and the average, there is predominate of urban-industrial jobs and lack of other opportunities.   

Scale:
Below the critical value
Between the critical value and the average
Above the average value

Pernik district

Figure 4:  The Socio-economic Development of the Regions in Bulgaria

An indicator for the higher number of emigrants is the capital, which is the best-developed region in Bulgaria. In the capital, there is a job diversity and district Pernik is near to it. For that reason, many people immigrate to Sofia.  

 

Source 2: From the primary data and more specifically the interviews, I found out that there are several pull and push factors, which affect the causes of migration, shown in table 1. The first interviewed was 65 years old, female. She was born in Dren, however, she immigrated to Sofia at the age of 15 for better education. The second interviewed was 35 years old man; he had financial problems and he could not find a job in Dren, so he emigrated to Pernik at the age of 25. Now he works there as a construction worker. The third interviewed was 20 years old man, who emigrated to Sofia because he thinks that the city offers better living conditions such as malls, cinemas, and nightclubs. The fourth interviewed was 80 years old female. She was born in Gorna Dikanya (another village), however, she immigrated to Dren because she married a man from Dren. The fifth interview was the longest, I interviewed a young man who had a grandmother from Dren but he was born in Sofia. He immigrated to Dren because he wanted to enjoy the beautiful nature. He works as a programmer from his computer. For that reason, his location is irrelevant. Also, when he wants to see his friends he travels by car to Sofia for 40 minutes.

To summarize the data I created a table:

 

Pull factors
 

·         Lack of job opportunity
·         Lack of education
·         Lack of entertainment
 

 Push factors
 

·         Marriage (family reasons)
·         Beautiful nature

 Table 1: Pull and push factors in Dren

 

Source 3:  During the treatment of the survey, I reached the following result:

The percentage of the immigrants is 42 % and the percentage of the emigrants is 58%. After this calculation, I separated the survey into two selections, emigrants, and immigrants. In order to structure my analysis clearly.  

 

Immigration:

There was a balance between the men and the women, who have immigrated (see Figure 5).

Figure 5- Sex structure of respondents

Description of the graph: The graph shows that the female respondents are 48 per cent and the male respondents are 52 percent

The age structure of immigrants (see figure 6) shows that 79 percent of the immigrants are part of the Bulgarian dependency ratio. They receive a pension and do not work. 21 percent of the respondents are between 31 and 50 years. They live in the village because the atmosphere is calm and save. These respondents work in the nearby cities. There are not immigrants at the age between 0 and 19. The reason is that there is a lack of educational institutions.  

 

 

Figure 6- shows the age structure of the immigrants in Dren  

The education structure of respondents:

47 percent of the respondents have primary education. In most cases, these people immigrated to Dren from other villages. They are elderly citizens and a big part of them are the heirs to the idea that it is most important thing is to work and to take care of the family. 33 percent of the respondent have secondary education and the last 20 percent have an upper education. These part of the immigrants have work in the cities but live in the countryside. 

 

Causes of immigration (see figure 7): According to the survey, there were only two cause of immigration “Family” and “Better Living Conditions” Therefore, I can only conclude that in this area, people mainly immigrate due to family reasons. However, a small percentage of the immigrants live in Dren due to better conditions.  

Figure 7: This graph indicates the reasons for immigration in Dren.

 

Emigration-

There is gender balance between the emigrants (see Figure 8)

Figure 8: Sex structure of respondents

Description of the graph:

The graph depicts the female respondents are 46 percent and the male respondents are 54 percent.

Figure 9: Age structure of emigrants

Description of the graph:

The graph shows that 52 percent of the respondents are part of the Bulgarian working population. The reason of their emigration is the lack of job opportunities. 37 percent of the respondents are under 19. They emigrated because of lack of schools and kindergartens. The other 11 percent of the emigrants are from 51 and over 65 they emigrated because of the same factors.

 

 

 

Education structure of respondents:

20 percent of the respondents have primary education and 16 per cent have secondary education because they quitted school in order to take up an employment. 34 percent of the respondents have specialized secondary and college education.  Usually, these respondents are between 40 and 60 years because a few years ago this was an educational trend in Bulgaria. 30 per cent of the respondents have upper education.

Causes of emigration (see Figure 10)- Looking at the survey we can conclude that the main reason for emigration is the lack of job opportunities followed by the education and better living conditions. Family is the factors, which do not correspond to the emigration factors. In addition, this information confirms the information extracted from the interviews.  

 

 

 

Figure 10: The graph indicates the reasons for emigration in Dren

Advantages and disadvantages of village life:

I crated two graphs from the data of all respondents

Advantages: There is a similarity of the emigrants and immigrants answers. The number of immigrants is lower hereof the red columns are lower. The main advantage is ecological (32 people) followed by safe environment (28 people) and calmness (20 people). No one of the respondents answered “There is no” 

Figure 11: shows the advantages of village life

 

Disadvantages: The answers of the emigrants and immigrants are different. The main disadvantage is logistic and communication (36 people) followed by lack of entertainment (34) and limited social environment (10 people, which are only emigrants)  

Figure 12: shows the disadvantages of village life

 

 

 

 

E: Conclusion-  u4 

I proved my first hypothesis because there are more emigrants, despite the increasing urban-to-rural migration trend in Bulgaria. Distinct Pernik neglects the rural economy and this leads to the emigration to more economically developed regions such as Sofia. Also, there are no other job opportunities. This as a push factor forces people who live in Dren to work in the nearby cities. Further proof is that the only two causes to immigrate in Dren are the marriage to someone from the village or better living conditions.  

On the other hand, no one answered that there are no advantages of the village live. All of the interviewee sad that in Dren the air is cleaner and that the environment is more safe then the big cities. However, these advantages are not sufficient to stay in Dren. In addition, the lack of schools and hospitals in the village contributes to the emigration.

To conclude, the indigenous population is made up of elderly citizens which means that the dependency ratio is extremely high. This forces the working age population to send remittances to the Dren citizens. Furthermore, the government is committed to paying a state pension and related benefits such as a minimum income guarantee.  This leads to reducing of the economic growth. 

       

 

F: Evaluation u5 

During my investigation I had several weaknesses and strengths. I was able to answer my research question and to prove my first hypothesis. However, I had some limitations in the methodology.  

I can improve my methods of investigation through several ways. It would be better to ask more than 80 people. Furthermore, there were many people who were hesitant to answer my questions. This affected the   amount of surveys I was able to obtain. Also, it would be better to interviewed more than 4 people, especially youth because my research lacks sufficient information about the people under 20 years. In addition the survey is not absolutely objective because in the village there was the full number of immigrants, however there is a big chance of the miss of some emigrants

On the other hand, through the written analysis, I used various types of graphs and I analyzed different sources such as primary and secondary. As secondary data, I used a large number of websites.

 

Suggestions and improvements:

·         To ask more than 80 people for the survey

·         To interview more people

·         To dived the survey into two parts (two different holidays)

 

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–           

–          Brief comment on the geographic context – why and where; A MAP;

–          State the area of the syllabus to which the study is related;

 

 u2

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–          Must describe the methods – can include sampling techniques, time, location and circumstances of info collection

–          The method must be justified and provide sufficient data

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????, ?? ???? primary and secondary data.

 u3?? ????????, ??? ?? ????:

 

–          Display the collected info using appropriate techniques

–          Statistical tests, graphs, diagrams, maps, annotated photos and images

–          Interpret and explain the collected info in depth

–          Explain anomalies

–          The treatment and display of material and the written analysis must be integrated here

 

 

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 u4?? ????????:

–          Summarize the findings

–          There should be a clear, concise statement, answering the fieldwork question; it is acceptable to state that the findings do not match the preliminary judgement or prediction

 

 u5?? ????????

–          Review the methodology

–          Consider any factors that may have affected the validity of the data

–          Suggest ways to improve and extend the study